Showing posts with label Job Numbers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Job Numbers. Show all posts

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Gallup CEO calls the "low" jobless rate a "lie"

February 07, 2015 Job Numbers , Rupert Neate 0 Comments
US Economy Adds 257000 Jobs In Biggest Increase Since November 2008

By Rupert Neate, Feb. 6, 2015, TheGuardian.com

The US economy added 257,000 jobs in January, beating expectations of 230,000 jobs and giving the market renewed confidence in the health of the nation’s economy.

The Labor Department also revised jobs data from for November and December to show 147,000 more jobs were created than previously estimated. The revised figures for November show 423,000 jobs were created – the most since May 2010.

“With today’s strong employment report, we have now seen eleven straight months of job gains above 200,000 – the first time that has happened in nearly two decades,” wrote Jason Furman, chairman of the White House’s council of economic advisers.

The private sector has now added 11.8m jobs over 59 straight months of job growth, extending the longest streak on record.

“We keep trying to tell everyone that the US economy is enjoying a period of unusual strength; maybe now people will believe us,” said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at thinktank Capital Economics. “The economy is doing so well that it has created more than 1 million additional jobs in the last three months alone. That’s the strongest pace of job growth we’ve seen since 1997.”

Read the full story:  www.theguardian.com

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Friday, September 5, 2014

In other economic news...

September 05, 2014 Ali Meyer , Bureau of Labor Statistics 0 Comments
Record 92,269,000 Not in Labor Force; Participation Rate Matches 36-Year Low

By Ali Meyer, Sept. 5, 2014, CNSNews.com

(CNSNews.com) - A record 92,269,000 Americans 16 and older did not participate in the labor force in August, as the labor force participation rate matched a 36-year low of 62.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The labor force participation rate has been as low as 62.8 percent in six of the last twelve months, but prior to last October had not fallen that low since 1978.

BLS employment statistics are based on the civilian noninstitutional population, which consists of all people 16 or older who were not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home.

In August, the civilian noninstitutional population was 248,229,000 according to BLS. Of that 248,229,000, 155,959,000—or 62.8 percent--participated in the labor force, meaning they either had or job or had actively sought one in the last four weeks.

Read the full story:  www.cnsnews.com

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Friday, July 4, 2014

Unemployment Improves, But Still Dreadful For Millennials --Backed Obama in '08 and '12--How's that working for you?

July 04, 2014 Bureau of Labor Statistics , Job Numbers 1 Comments
By Robby Soave, Jul. 3, 2014, Reason.com

A generally encouraging jobs report was released Thursday, inspiring some confidence that the limping economy was recovering. According to Forbes:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a surprisingly strong jobs report Thursday morning.

Employers added 288,000 jobs in June, significantly more than the 215,000 economists were anticipating. The unemployment rate, which is drawn from a different survey of households, dropped from 6.3% to 6.1% the lowest rate since September 2008.

Immediately following the news the S&P 500, The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite were in the green, continuing positive trends seen leading up to the pre-bell release. The Dow crossed 17,000 for the first time ever seconds after the opening bell before settling around 17,050.

The May payroll number was revised up from plus 217,000 jobs to plus 224,000. April’s employment number was also revised from 282,000 jobs added to 304,000. Total employment gains those months were therefore 29,000 higher than BLS — a division of the Department of Labor — previously reported. Job growth averaged 272,000 for the last three months.

“This was a strong report any way you slice it,” wrote RBS U.S. Economist Omair Sharif in a note on the news. Sharif pointed out that the unemployment rate is “where the Fed thought we would be at year-end, and it’s only June.”

The New York Times' Neil Irwin writes that while the numbers are indeed inspiring, there is good reason to be cautious. The job market has periodically experienced an errant, solid quarter only to plummet again:

So the reasons I’m saving the fireworks for the July 4 holiday, rather than this jobs report, is not because there is some obvious soft underbelly. It’s because we’ve kind of seen this before.

Read the full story:  www.reason.com

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Sunday, June 8, 2014

Wall St. Journal: 5 Takeaways From Jobs Report --Not good

June 08, 2014 Alan Levenson , Federal Reserve 0 Comments
By Kathleen Matigan, Jun. 6, 2014, Wsj.com

1. THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE REMAINS LOW

The steady jobless rate, at 6.3%, may be masking more labor slack in the adult U.S. population. The labor force participation rate—a datapoint followed at the Federal Reserve—held at a decades-low of 62.8% in May. While some of the shrinking labor force reflects boomers retiring, the severe recession and weak recovery have also played a part. Economists think that absent the recession, the labor force-participation rate would be 64.6%

2. NO RENAISSANCE FOR MANUFACTURING JOBS

The manufacturing sector may be enjoying a renaissance, thanks in part to cheaper U.S. energy. But the gain in output has mainly come from more automation and productivity. Manufacturers may be booking new orders, but they aren’t hiring many new workers. Factory payrolls rose just 10,000 in May. Since the recovery began in mid-2009, factory output is up more than 25%; payrolls just over 3%.

3. HOURS WORKED IMPLIES FASTER GDP, OR SLOWER PRODUCTIVITY, IN 2Q

Alan Levenson, chief economist at T. Rowe Price, points out aggregated hours worked by production workers is growing at a 4.0% annual rate so far in the second quarter. Aggregate hours are viewed as an input into economic growth. So, the jump in hours means either gross domestic product is growing faster than the 3.5% or so rate economists are expecting. Or all of that output is being generated by new labor, and productivity will be weak again this quarter.

Read all five:  www.blogs.wsj.com

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Thursday, May 8, 2014

The 50 Percent Recovery By Larry Elder

May 08, 2014 Articles by Larry Elder , Job Numbers 0 Comments
By Larry Elder, May 8, 2014

UCLA economist Lee Ohanion says that this recovery is light 10,000,000 jobs.

Historically, the deeper the recession, the bigger the bounce back. Economics Professor John Lott shows uses two graphs to depict how poorly this recovery compares to those in the past:
Source:  John R. Lott, Twitter


And:
Source:  John R. Lott, Twitter
UCLA’s Ohanian says the average post-recession growth would have created some 200,000 jobs per month more than what we see in the fifth year of the Obama “recovery.”  Bottom line:  10,000,000 jobs that would have been created simply do not exist.

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Wednesday, May 7, 2014

800K Stop Looking For Work In April -- Media Cheers By Larry Elder

May 07, 2014 Articles by Larry Elder , GDP 0 Comments
By Larry Elder, May 7, 2014

Headlines used verbs like "surge" to describe the April job numbers.

The USA Today newspaper was typical: “Spring Stunner: Jobs Report Blows Past Forecasts.”

Unemployment has fallen to 6.3 percent and April added 288,000 jobs. But as has been typical throughout this five-year "recovery," the real news is the weak nature of this recovery.

The Obama recovery has averaged 2.2 GDP per year. Previous recoveries since 1960, seven in all, have averaged 4.1 percent annual GDP growth – or almost twice the rate of growth we have experienced under this president.

Forbes wrote a few days ago: “The U.S. economy sustained a real rate of economic growth of 3.3 percent from 1945 to 1973, and achieved the same 3.3 percent sustained real growth from 1982 to 2007. It was only during the stagflation decade of 1973 to 1982, reflecting the deeply misguided reigning intellectual leadership of the time, that real growth fell to only half long term trends.

“If we could revive and sustain that same 3.3 percent real growth for 20 years, our total economic production (GDP) would double in that time. After 30 years, our economic output would grow by 2 and two-thirds. After 40 years, our prosperity bounty would grow by 3 and two-thirds. … President Obama is not on the path to that restoration. The latest report on real GDP growth estimates this year’s first quarter at a pitiful 0.1 percent.”

Pointing out that the last recession ended five years ago, Forbes continues: “Recoveries always involve above average growth, well over the 3.3 percent long term trendline, as the economy catches up to that world leading American growth pace. That is why the American historical record is the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery, as the economy grows faster in the recovery to make up the lost ground from the long-term trendline.

“Obama’s supposed economic recovery during the last five years has never even gotten back to the 3.3 percent long term trendline. The high points were 2.5 percent in 2010 and 2.8 percent in 2012. The high point for Reagan’s recovery was nearly 7 percent, in 1984, the highest in 50 years.

“As the Wall Street Journal reported this week: ‘Average growth over the 19 quarters for this [Obama] recovery has been 2.2 percent, with total economic growth [over the 5 years of the recovery] of 11.1 percent. The average for all post-1960 recoveries is 4.1 percent with total growth of 21.1 percent. The average for the Reagan expansion was 4.9 percent and total growth of 25.6 percent.’”

Economist Stephen Moore, formerly with the Wall Street Journal and now with the Heritage Foundation, says it is the worst recovery -- ever. Here's how the Associated Press, in 2012 -- more than three after the recession ended -- described the recovery:

“Since World War II, 10 U.S. recessions have been followed by a recovery that lasted at least three years. An Associated Press analysis shows that by just about any measure, the one that began in June 2009 is the weakest…. Economic growth has never been weaker in a postwar recovery. Consumer spending has never been so slack. Only once has job growth been slower. More than in any other post-World War II recovery, people who have jobs are hurting: Their paychecks have fallen behind inflation.”

Finally, who else says this recovery is awful? The then-newly elected President Barack Obama.

“There is no disagreement," said then-President-elect Barack Obama, "that we need action by our government, a recovery plan that will help to jump-start the economy.” Defying the objections made by hundreds of this country’s most reputable economists, Obama later doubled down, saying: “This is what independent economists have said -- not politicians, not just people in my administration. Independent experts who do this for a living have said this jobs bill will have a significant effect for our economy and for middle-class families all across America. And what these independent experts have also said is that if we don’t act, the opposite will be true. There will be fewer jobs; there will be weaker growth.”

When his economic team took over, it made projections for how they expected the economy to perform under their economic policies, including raising taxes on the wealthy, a $1 trillion “stimulus,” new financial and environmental regulations, “investments” in green jobs and Obamacare.

Four months into office, Obama’s budget update for May 2009 predicted the economy would be cranking by 2011, with real term economic growth of 4 percent and unemployment down to 7.1 percent. Later that year their optimism waned a bit, but they still put 2011 GDP growth at a very respectable 3.8 percent and an unemployment average of 8.6 percent. The real GDP growth rate for 2011 was 2.0 percent -- almost half of the Obama administration’s predictions. The 2011 unemployment rate averaged 9 percent -- 27 percent higher than their first prediction, and still 4.6 percent higher than their revised prediction.

Moore, the economist, recently said this about the economy: “President Obama’s economic strategy of redistribution -- more welfare spending, more debt, more bailouts, a socialized health care system and higher tax rates -- has crash-landed the U.S. economy. The middle class is fighting over a smaller share of a smaller pie, and the ranks of those in poverty keep rising.

“By the way, all the [income equality] obsession in this White House the past five years has managed only to make income disparities wider. The latest IRS data, through 2012, show that the richest 3 percent have made income gains, and nearly everyone else is losing ground.”

The media works hard to convince us that this recovery is about as good as one could reasonably expect. No, it isn’t. Not by a long shot.

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