800K Stop Looking For Work In April -- Media Cheers By Larry Elder

By Larry Elder, May 7, 2014

Headlines used verbs like "surge" to describe the April job numbers.

The USA Today newspaper was typical: “Spring Stunner: Jobs Report Blows Past Forecasts.”

Unemployment has fallen to 6.3 percent and April added 288,000 jobs. But as has been typical throughout this five-year "recovery," the real news is the weak nature of this recovery.

The Obama recovery has averaged 2.2 GDP per year. Previous recoveries since 1960, seven in all, have averaged 4.1 percent annual GDP growth – or almost twice the rate of growth we have experienced under this president.

Forbes wrote a few days ago: “The U.S. economy sustained a real rate of economic growth of 3.3 percent from 1945 to 1973, and achieved the same 3.3 percent sustained real growth from 1982 to 2007. It was only during the stagflation decade of 1973 to 1982, reflecting the deeply misguided reigning intellectual leadership of the time, that real growth fell to only half long term trends.

“If we could revive and sustain that same 3.3 percent real growth for 20 years, our total economic production (GDP) would double in that time. After 30 years, our economic output would grow by 2 and two-thirds. After 40 years, our prosperity bounty would grow by 3 and two-thirds. … President Obama is not on the path to that restoration. The latest report on real GDP growth estimates this year’s first quarter at a pitiful 0.1 percent.”

Pointing out that the last recession ended five years ago, Forbes continues: “Recoveries always involve above average growth, well over the 3.3 percent long term trendline, as the economy catches up to that world leading American growth pace. That is why the American historical record is the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery, as the economy grows faster in the recovery to make up the lost ground from the long-term trendline.

“Obama’s supposed economic recovery during the last five years has never even gotten back to the 3.3 percent long term trendline. The high points were 2.5 percent in 2010 and 2.8 percent in 2012. The high point for Reagan’s recovery was nearly 7 percent, in 1984, the highest in 50 years.

“As the Wall Street Journal reported this week: ‘Average growth over the 19 quarters for this [Obama] recovery has been 2.2 percent, with total economic growth [over the 5 years of the recovery] of 11.1 percent. The average for all post-1960 recoveries is 4.1 percent with total growth of 21.1 percent. The average for the Reagan expansion was 4.9 percent and total growth of 25.6 percent.’”

Economist Stephen Moore, formerly with the Wall Street Journal and now with the Heritage Foundation, says it is the worst recovery -- ever. Here's how the Associated Press, in 2012 -- more than three after the recession ended -- described the recovery:

“Since World War II, 10 U.S. recessions have been followed by a recovery that lasted at least three years. An Associated Press analysis shows that by just about any measure, the one that began in June 2009 is the weakest…. Economic growth has never been weaker in a postwar recovery. Consumer spending has never been so slack. Only once has job growth been slower. More than in any other post-World War II recovery, people who have jobs are hurting: Their paychecks have fallen behind inflation.”

Finally, who else says this recovery is awful? The then-newly elected President Barack Obama.

“There is no disagreement," said then-President-elect Barack Obama, "that we need action by our government, a recovery plan that will help to jump-start the economy.” Defying the objections made by hundreds of this country’s most reputable economists, Obama later doubled down, saying: “This is what independent economists have said -- not politicians, not just people in my administration. Independent experts who do this for a living have said this jobs bill will have a significant effect for our economy and for middle-class families all across America. And what these independent experts have also said is that if we don’t act, the opposite will be true. There will be fewer jobs; there will be weaker growth.”

When his economic team took over, it made projections for how they expected the economy to perform under their economic policies, including raising taxes on the wealthy, a $1 trillion “stimulus,” new financial and environmental regulations, “investments” in green jobs and Obamacare.

Four months into office, Obama’s budget update for May 2009 predicted the economy would be cranking by 2011, with real term economic growth of 4 percent and unemployment down to 7.1 percent. Later that year their optimism waned a bit, but they still put 2011 GDP growth at a very respectable 3.8 percent and an unemployment average of 8.6 percent. The real GDP growth rate for 2011 was 2.0 percent -- almost half of the Obama administration’s predictions. The 2011 unemployment rate averaged 9 percent -- 27 percent higher than their first prediction, and still 4.6 percent higher than their revised prediction.

Moore, the economist, recently said this about the economy: “President Obama’s economic strategy of redistribution -- more welfare spending, more debt, more bailouts, a socialized health care system and higher tax rates -- has crash-landed the U.S. economy. The middle class is fighting over a smaller share of a smaller pie, and the ranks of those in poverty keep rising.

“By the way, all the [income equality] obsession in this White House the past five years has managed only to make income disparities wider. The latest IRS data, through 2012, show that the richest 3 percent have made income gains, and nearly everyone else is losing ground.”

The media works hard to convince us that this recovery is about as good as one could reasonably expect. No, it isn’t. Not by a long shot.

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