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1. THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE REMAINS LOW
The steady jobless rate, at 6.3%, may be masking more labor slack in the adult U.S. population. The labor force participation rate—a datapoint followed at the Federal Reserve—held at a decades-low of 62.8% in May. While some of the shrinking labor force reflects boomers retiring, the severe recession and weak recovery have also played a part. Economists think that absent the recession, the labor force-participation rate would be 64.6%
2. NO RENAISSANCE FOR MANUFACTURING JOBS
The manufacturing sector may be enjoying a renaissance, thanks in part to cheaper U.S. energy. But the gain in output has mainly come from more automation and productivity. Manufacturers may be booking new orders, but they aren’t hiring many new workers. Factory payrolls rose just 10,000 in May. Since the recovery began in mid-2009, factory output is up more than 25%; payrolls just over 3%.
3. HOURS WORKED IMPLIES FASTER GDP, OR SLOWER PRODUCTIVITY, IN 2Q
Alan Levenson, chief economist at T. Rowe Price, points out aggregated hours worked by production workers is growing at a 4.0% annual rate so far in the second quarter. Aggregate hours are viewed as an input into economic growth. So, the jump in hours means either gross domestic product is growing faster than the 3.5% or so rate economists are expecting. Or all of that output is being generated by new labor, and productivity will be weak again this quarter.
Read all five: www.blogs.wsj.com
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