Monday, January 23, 2017

The Best Case For The Trump Economy


By Forbes, Jan. 21, 2017

President Trump brings a lot of risks and uncertainty to the economy. But Trump is if anything unpredictable, and one possibility is that he does very little and lets the economy continue to heal on it's own. It's worth asking then, what's the best performance that the economy could churn out over the next four years? This is a tough question to answer rigorously, but let me at least take a lazy and vague crack at it.

Here's a very, very simple benchmark to look at: the prime-aged employment to population ratio. This is the percent of people ages 25 to 54 who have jobs. Right now the non-institutional population ages 25 to 54 is about 125 million people. If you look over the long-term, the employment to population rate falls during recessions then slowly recover. So if we can avoid a recession, it's not crazy to think we could get back to 2000 levels. That means going from 78.2% today to 81.9%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points.

Read More: http://www.forbes.com

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