The Glasshouse Report

Monday, January 23, 2017

The Best Case For The Trump Economy


By Forbes, Jan. 21, 2017

President Trump brings a lot of risks and uncertainty to the economy. But Trump is if anything unpredictable, and one possibility is that he does very little and lets the economy continue to heal on it's own. It's worth asking then, what's the best performance that the economy could churn out over the next four years? This is a tough question to answer rigorously, but let me at least take a lazy and vague crack at it.

Here's a very, very simple benchmark to look at: the prime-aged employment to population ratio. This is the percent of people ages 25 to 54 who have jobs. Right now the non-institutional population ages 25 to 54 is about 125 million people. If you look over the long-term, the employment to population rate falls during recessions then slowly recover. So if we can avoid a recession, it's not crazy to think we could get back to 2000 levels. That means going from 78.2% today to 81.9%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points.

Read More: http://www.forbes.com

Join us - become an Elderado today at:
LarryElder.com

Follow Larry Elder on Twitter

"Like" Larry Elder on Facebook

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comment Policy:

The author of this blog will attempt to engage in conversation via the comments section whenever possible and recognize the 24/7 nature of the internet. Moderating and posting of comments will occur during regular operational hours Monday through Friday. Comments submitted after hours or on weekends will be read and posted as early as possible, however admins and/or the author is unable to commit to replying to every comment posted.

This is a moderated blog. That means all comments will be reviewed before posting. In addition, it is expected that participants will treat each other, as well as the author and admin, with respect. Comments that contain vulgar or abusive language; personal attacks of any kind will not be posted. Comments that are spam or that promote services or products will not be posted. It is requested that all comments remain on topic.

The Elder Statement blog does not guarantee or warrant that any information posted by individuals on this blog is correct, and disclaims any liability for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on any such information. The Elder Statement blog may not be able to verify, does not warrant or guarantee, and assumes no liability for anything posted on this website by any other person. The Elder Statement blog does not endorse, support or otherwise promote any private or commercial entity or the information, products or services contained on those Web sites that may be reached through links on our Web site.

To protect individual privacy and the privacy of others, please do not include phone numbers, addresses or email details in the body of a comment. Such information will result in removal of a comment.

Thank you for your attention.

The Elder Statement