The numbers: Pending home sales fell 4.7% to 104.6 in January, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. That’s the lowest reading since October 2014, after the biggest monthly decline since 2010, when the recovery was just getting started.

What happened: The NAR’s index of pending home sales, which tracks real-estate transactions in which a contract has been signed, but the transaction hasn’t closed, had been grinding slowly higher. But December’s reading was revised down, and the index is now 3.8% below year-ago levels.