The Elder Statement : Kevin Glass

Friday, January 2, 2015

Unintended consequences

How Regulation Prevents Americans From Doing Good

Kevin Glass, Jan. 1, 2015, Townhall

The way this sounds, it's absolutely absurd. Though Howard gets a few things wrong - he says of regulation like this, "each alone seems logical in the abstract." That's not true. A lot of these sound absurd on their face, even without considering some unintended side effects.

Read more: www.townhall.com

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Thursday, June 12, 2014

The Three Liberal Myths About Partisanship Busted By Pew's New Poll --Which is the "extreme" party?

elderstatement.com June 12, 2014 Kevin Glass , Liberal Agenda 0 Comments

By Kevin Glass, Jun. 12, 2014, Townhall.com

A fascinating new poll out today from the Pew Research Center reports on how they've tracked Americans' beliefs on political issues over time. It's wide-ranging and deep and a fascinating look at what Americans believe. One of the most important parts is how the two coalitions - Republicans and Democrats - have changed over the last twenty years. And it takes a sledgehammer to myths that liberals have been telling themselves.

Myth #1: Polarization is asymmetric

Asymmetric polarization, as espoused by analysts like the Brookings Institute's Thomas Mann, goes something like this: Democrats have created a big tent governming majority that tolerates lots of different views and, as a result, has a kind of "moderate center" that has remained relatively consistent; while Republicans have exiled the centrists in their party as grassroots voters have taken over and made their party more extreme all on their own.

That's flatly not true.

The typical measurement of asymmetric polarization comes from a Congressional metric called DW-NOMINATE, which at its heart measures how often elected representatives in Congress vote with each other. The flaw here is that it doesn't take into account the relative leftness or rightness of a proposal being voted on. If there were a vote in Congress to repeal the 2nd Amendment, for example, with all Republicans voting against and Democrats split evenly between for and against, would be a data point contributing to Republicans becoming more "extreme" and Democrats being relatively centrist. DW-NOMINATE has certain utility in evaluating legislative coalitions, but as an actual measure of how left-wing or right-wing any coalition is, it's severely lacking.

Pew's survey finds a lot of interesting trends in the Republican Party, but one thing is certain: Democrats have gotten much more liberal over the last twenty years. Pew actually measures how people feel about a lot of different issues, not just how their votes cluster. Democrats moved noticably leftward in the late 90s. What is true is that Democrats stagnated throughout the Bush years in how Pew measures how liberal they are - they remained relatively consistent. But in the Obama era, Democrats have veered sharply leftward, as shown in these two images; watch how far the median Democrat jumps from 2010 to 2014: