Looking at the candidates at the first Republican debate last August, few would have predicted the rise of Donald Trump and the fate of the 16 other people on stage with him. But perhaps we should have: Trump was riding what turned out to be the dominant issue of immigration.

Looking at it another way, however, perhaps we were entitled to discount Trump’s chances. He wasn’t your typical candidate, and if no one else was talking about immigration, maybe it wasn’t such a big issue after all. For years, the press had told us that the real crisis was our failure to give amnesty to illegal immigrants, and among the Republicans some of the weak sisters fell for it.

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