Jared Bernstein is a left-wing economist who works for MSNBC.
He recently appeared on the Rev. Al Sharpton’s show, “Politics Nation,” where Sharpton played the following soundbite from House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.:
“If Washington is serious about helping working families or serious about getting families out of work back to work, then it needs to get serious about our national debt. How do we do it? First we stop spending money we don't have.”
To this Bernstein, Joe Biden’s former top economist, responded: “Look, it is patently wrong on the numbers. They call Paul Ryan a numbers guy. He gets them wrong as often as not. The budget deficit as a share of GDP was 10 percent in 2009. Last I looked, it was 4 percent headed down to 3 percent. That's the largest four-year decline in the budget deficit since the mid-1950s, so he’s completely off about that. And almost 80 percent of those cuts have come from the spending side, not the revenue side.”
What kind of stunt did Bernstein just pull?
Ryan said nothing about the “deficit,” which is the gap between what government spends and what the government takes in a year. Ryan talked about our national “debt” -- the total government obligations that result from years of deficit spending and from the interest on that debt. Under Obama, the national debt has grown from about $10 trillion to about $17 trillion right now. According the Treasury Department, on January 20, 2009, when Obama took office, the national debt was $10,626,877,048,913.08. As of Jan. 31, 2014, the debt stood at $17,293,019,654,983.61. This is an increase of $6,666,142,606,070.53. CNS news said: “The total debt of the United States did not exceed $6.666 trillion until July 2003. In the little more than five years of the Obama presidency, the U.S. has accumulated as much new debt as it did in its first 227 years.”
And, yes, in the last couple of years the annual “deficit” has declined from about 10 percent of GDP to about 4 percent. But the shrinking deficit has followed historic non-World War II spending. Worse, the Congressional Budget Office expects the deficit to spike back up in the coming years.
The Wall Street Journal said: “The deficit has contracted sharply in the past few years. After four years of deficits in excess of $1 trillion, the deficit shrank to $680 billion in 2013 and is expected to keep narrowing this year and in 2015. This was caused in part by the growing economy, cuts to future spending, and changes to tax policy.”
But what about the future? Even President Obama has called the trajectory of the three so-called entitlement programs -- Medicare, Medicaid, Medicare -- ”unsustainable.” Plus, there is a brand new entitlement on top of the three others -- Obamacare.
Here’s our fiscal future according to Heritage Institute’s economist Stephen Moore:
“[W]hat hasn’t been advertised is the disgraceful longer-term outlook for our fiscal future, which took a turn for the worse. And Obamacare is the main culprit. In the long run, the budget deficit will be slightly more than $1.5 trillion WORSE than previously estimated.
“In 2015, the deficit starts exploding again -- to $912 billion in 2020, and then above $1 trillion annually from 2022 until the end of days. Is this really the path of fiscal righteousness?”…
“Meanwhile, the debt burden gets worse, not better. Our debt as a share of national output skyrockets from 72 percent to just shy of 80 percent of GDP within a decade. Obamacare contributes to this thanks to the massive costs of Medicaid expansion and driving an expected 2 million people from the workforce. The budget deal that relaxed the budget caps and sequestration also has ratcheted up spending in every future year.”
Bernstein confused “deficit” with “debt.” Sharpton, of course, is too obtuse to know the difference -- and wouldn’t challenge Bernstein if he did. Whether Bernstein intentionally confused the two, however, remains an open question.
Yes, Mr. Bernstein the “deficit” is down -- for now and only after a spending gush that has only temporarily slowed down. Again, Ryan said nothing about the deficit. Where are the “fact-checkers” when you need them? Ryan was addressing the explosion in debt under Obama.
The future numbers for both debt AND deficit look abysmal.
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