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By John Authers, Feb 04, 2016 FT
In response, brokerages and investment banks have started to pump out research, trying to assess the risk of a recession. Almost universally, they conclude that the risks remain low — but that they are rising.
The greatest concerns surround industrial production and manufacturing. Industrial production fell in 10 months out of 12 last year — a figure that has always, since 1919, been associated with a recession.
Additional worry comes from the ISM survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing, which over the long term has shown a strong correlation with growth in the economy. This has signalled a contraction for several months.
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