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Hispanics Seem To Be Souring On Obama Democrats
By Michael Barone, Oct. 16, 2014, Washingtonexaminer.com
It’s looking like a tough offyear election for Democrats, with their Senate majority at serious risk and their chances of gaining House seats down toward zero.
Every party has a bad offyear sometimes; Republicans did in 2006. Sooner or later they recover. But in the crosstabs of polls and in party strategists’ moves I see evidence that one group Democrats have been counting on is moving away from them: Hispanics.
Hispanics voted 71 percent for Barack Obama in 2012, 20 points above his national average of 51 percent. According to Gallup, Hispanics’ latest Obama job approval has sunk to 44 percent, just 3 points above the national average.
You probably haven’t heard much about this because Hispanics are scarce in all but one of the states with serious Senate races this year.
The one exception is Colorado, where the 2012 exit poll said 14 percent of voters were Hispanic. Non-Hispanic whites there voted 54 to 44 percent for Mitt Romney. But Hispanics voted 75 to 23 percent for Barack Obama, providing all of his popular vote margin and more.
In the last decade liberals have surged to victories in all top-of-the-ticket races in a state that once seemed safely Republican. This year that chain may well be broken. Incumbent Sen. Mark Udall trails Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls and is at 44 percent, well below 50. Incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper leads former Rep. Bob Beauprez by only 0.4 percent.
Looking at poll crosstabs where available, I find that neither Democrat is close to Obama’s 75 percent and both Republicans are running at or above Romney’s level. One poll even has the Hispanic vote evenly split.
Precision is impossible, because the Hispanic sample size is only 90 to 160, with a large statistical margin of error. But there’s other evidence of Democratic weakness among Hispanics, notably the withdrawal of national Democratic funding of Andrew Romanoff, the well-known former state legislator challenging 6th district Republican incumbent Mike Coffman.
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