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By The UpShot, Apr. 26, 2014, The New York Times
Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Republicans currently have a 52 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Republicans to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.
State-by-State Probabilities
To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling. More about our methodology.
See the full graphic and analysis forecast: www.nytimes.com
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