When Republican voters talk presidential politics these days, the conversation often steers to this question: "If it's Trump vs. Hillary, who do you vote for?"
It's a not-crazy question with a non-obvious answer for many in the GOP who might have a tough choice to make in November 2016. Despite all his supposed gaffes and heresies, Donald Trump continues to be the Republican Party's presidential frontrunner. He's dipped a bit from his peak popularity, but Trump still leads national polls with double and triple the support of more mainstream candidates such as Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. Betting markets are more skeptical, but give Trump more than a slugger's shot. Primary Guide, which converts U.K. bookmaker data into election probabilities, gives Trump a 12 percent chance of winning the nomination, versus 28 percent for Bush and 26 percent for Rubio.
There is a real chance that Donald Trump could be the Republican presidential nominee. At the same time, however, there are lots of GOP voters who still find Trump flat-out unacceptable. Although his approval ratings hit 50 percent in a recent USA Today-Suffolk University poll, his 37 percent unfavorable ratings were still far higher than opponents such as Ben Carson (9 percent), Rubio (13 percent), and Carly Fiorina (17 percent).
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